Guthrie · Logan County
The forecast for the first capital
56°
Clear
Feels like 54° · updated 2 minutes ago
Mild A high of 81°, down to 56° tonight.
- Wind
- SSE 8 mph
- Gusts
- 11 mph
- Humidity
- 71%
- Dew point
- 47°
- UV index
- 0
- Visibility
- 10 mi
- Pressure
- 1,022 mb
- Cloud cover
- 0%
- Thunder, 6h
- None
The next 24 hours
56° to 81° across the window, feeling up to 81°
Now
56°
SSE 8
8am
56°
SSE 8
9am
59°
SSE 6
10am
66°
SSE 8
11am
71°
S 9
12pm
76°
S 9
1pm
79°
S 9
2pm
79°
S 10
3pm
81°
S 10
4pm
81°
S 9
5pm
80°
SSE 8
6pm
77°
SSE 6
7pm
72°
SE 7
8pm
68°
feels 76°
SSE 8
9pm
66°
SE 8
10pm
64°
SE 8
11pm
63°
SE 7
12am
62°
SSE 6
1am
61°
SSE 5
2am
59°
SSE 6
3am
59°
SSE 5
4am
58°
SE 5
5am
57°
SE 5
6am
57°
SE 5
- Air temperature
- What it feels like
Scroll sideways for the full window
Ten days
Bars run 51° to 81° on one scale, so days compare
-
Today Oct 24
Cloudy
10%56° 81° -
Sun Oct 25
Cloudy
10%56° 79° -
Mon Oct 26
Partly sunny
10%56° 75° -
Tue Oct 27
Light rain
65%58° 73° -
Wed Oct 28
Sunny
—61° 79° -
Thu Oct 29
Mostly cloudy
15%64° 78° -
Fri Oct 30
Rain
60%63° 68° -
Sat Oct 31
Rain
75%62° 72° -
Sun Nov 1
Rain showers
65%57° 68° -
Mon Nov 2
Partly sunny
55%51° 67°
Radar
Centred on Guthrie · updated 1 minute ago
No precipitation within 75 miles of Guthrie
- Light rain 15–20 dBZ
- Rain 25–30 dBZ
- Heavy rain 35–45 dBZ
- Downpour 50–55 dBZ
- Hail likely 60+ dBZ
Last 18 minutes, 6:51 am to 7:10 am. Every town within thirty miles is named — which is why Coyle, Mulhall and Langston are on this map and not on a metro station’s.
On the ground in Logan County
Sun
7:43 am
up · down 6:44 pm
Cimarron
6.56 ft
steady · 736 cfs · floods at 18 ft
Cottonwood
3.95 ft
steady · 191 cfs · floods at 30 ft
Drought
Extreme
D3 · 2.5% of the county
Air quality
AQI 55
Moderate
Yesterday and the last 30 days
Guthrie station, about 3½ miles southwest of downtown Guthrie
Friday, October 23
High
80°
Low
57°
Rain
0.00″
0.00″ at Marshall
Strongest gust
21 mph
Soil, 4 in. down
67°
daily average, under grass
The 36 hours to 6 a.m. today
The last 14 days rain 6.41″ · last 7 days 0.00″
the day’s low to high rain
| Day | High | Low | Rain | Gust |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri Oct 23 | 80° | 57° | 0.00″ | 21 mph |
| Thu Oct 22 | 81° | 55° | 0.00″ | 14 mph |
| Wed Oct 21 | 80° | 56° | 0.00″ | 15 mph |
| Tue Oct 20 | 76° | 55° | 0.00″ | 20 mph |
| Mon Oct 19 | 73° | 49° | 0.00″ | 22 mph |
| Sun Oct 18 | 67° | 42° | 0.00″ | 22 mph |
| Sat Oct 17 | 61° | 39° | 0.00″ | 10 mph |
Data from the Oklahoma Mesonet, the state’s weather network, run by the University of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State University. A day runs midnight to midnight; rain is what the gauge caught.
How we have done
Our forecast against the National Weather Service — both measured at the automated station at Guthrie Municipal
On next-day highs we have missed by an average of 2.6°; the National Weather Service by 2.3°. Across 45 days we were closer on 21, they were closer on 24.
| Made | Days | Our miss | NWS miss | Closer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A day ahead | 45 | 2.6° | 2.3° | 21–24 |
| 2 days ahead | 44 | 3.1° | 2.6° | 20–24 |
| 3 days ahead | 43 | 3.9° | 2.8° | 19–23 |
| 4 days ahead | 42 | 3.9° | 3.3° | 16–26 |
| 5 days ahead | 41 | 4.3° | 3.9° | 17–23 |
| 6 days ahead | 40 | 5.4° | 5.2° | 17–22 |
| 7 days ahead | 39 | 6.5° | 6.1° | 19–20 |
Day-ahead calls, most recent first — ours, theirs, and what happened
- Oct 23 we said 80° NWS 80° it was 81° -0.4°
- Oct 22 we said 82° NWS 80° it was 72° +10.1°
- Oct 21 we said 80° NWS 78° it was 81° -0.5°
- Oct 20 we said 76° NWS 73° it was 77° -0.7°
- Oct 19 we said 72° NWS 71° it was 73° -1.3°
- Oct 18 we said 67° NWS 64° it was 68° -0.6°
- Oct 17 we said 61° NWS 59° it was 61° -0.2°
- Oct 16 we said 59° NWS 58° it was 59° -0.2°
- Oct 15 we said 70° NWS 78° it was 70° -0.1°
- Oct 14 we said 76° NWS 80° it was 75° +0.8°
Both forecasts are for Guthrie’s own coordinates — ours from an AI forecasting model, theirs from the National Weather Service gridpoint at Norman — and both are scored against the same thermometer, at Guthrie Municipal (KGOK), which neither of us owns. The high is the daytime maximum, 7am to 7pm local — the window both forecasts are actually for, since the Weather Service publishes its high for the twelve hours ending 7pm and our model’s daily high is the same daytime figure. Measuring midnight to midnight instead would score a forecast against a number that can belong to the day before: on 10 September the thermometer read 88° just before one in the morning, the tail of a 104° day, and the afternoon reached only 82°. A day with too few readings is left out rather than scored from partial data. The head-to-head counts only days where both of us made a call at the same distance out — the NWS forecast runs seven days, so our eighth, ninth and tenth are not scored against it rather than counted as wins by default, and a day it did not call shows a dash rather than a victory. Nothing is filtered: every day we can verify is in, including the ones we lost.
Where this comes from
- Yesterday and the last 30 days: the Oklahoma Mesonet, the state's own weather network, from its station about 3½ miles southwest of downtown Guthrie, read once a day at 6:10 a.m.; Marshall's gauge for the north of the county.
- Forecast, hourly and current conditions: WeatherNext, a machine-learning forecasting model, blended with conventional numerical weather prediction — and resolved to Guthrie's own coordinates rather than to Oklahoma City. Ten-day outlook last refreshed 7:00 am. Source: Includes weather data from Google
- How much cloud there is: measured, not modelled — the ceilometer at Guthrie Municipal (KGOK), averaged over its last half hour and read at 6:45 am, then weighed against 6 more stations around the county. A forecast model is good at temperature and unreliable about whether you can see the sun this minute, and that is the one thing a reader can check by looking out of the window. One ceilometer looks straight up and judges the whole sky from a single column of air, so on a breezy afternoon under broken cloud it can call the sky for whatever happened to drift over the airfield; the neighbouring stations are there to catch it. Rain and storms are left to the model and the radar: an instrument that counts cloud cannot see them.
- Warnings and watches: the National Weather Service office in Norman, and only the National Weather Service. A forecast model is a model; a warning is an official act.
- River stages: USGS gauges on the Cimarron and Cottonwood. Drought: the U.S. Drought Monitor for Logan County. Air quality: AirNow.
