The Oklahoma State Capital

Good news: A picture tells a thousand words, so, in a stunning departure from the norm, I won’t need to treat you to one of my patented super-lengthy, in-depth analyses. You can simply see it with your own eyes.

Just published at OklahomaStateCapital.com, check out the color-coded interactive map showing the 2026 governor’s race, right down to the precinct level. It turns the casual politico into a bit of a campaign insider, allowing viewers to quickly observe some of the most fascinating narratives from the 2026 Republican gubernatorial primary.

For example, you can’t miss it: It’s back—the clear dividing line between Western Oklahoma, with its Midwestern sensibilities and roots in the original Oklahoma Territory, now once again distinctly separated from the Osage Nation and Indian Territory.

The former was all in for Chip Keating and Jake Merrick, with the two trading precinct leads back and forth. Merrick carried his Canadian County base—one of Oklahoma’s largest counties, ranking fourth in the state in raw voting power—and scored a stunner in Garfield County, the ninth-largest county in raw votes. Keating had to settle for a decent consolation prize: Woodward County, which ranks 35th in the state.

Moving east, Drummond flexed his support in his home county, Osage County, and the surrounding counties, with a corridor of support extending from Barnsdall in the east, thriving in the Stillwater precincts, and reaching all the way to Coyle in the west before slamming into a wall of Logan County conservatives who haven’t yet quite developed a taste for Drummond’s John McCain-style maverick liberalism.

In the Drummond corridor, it is reasonable to infer that Drummond provided coattails for establishment Swampy Seven senators Coleman and Hall, who, aside from Lincoln County’s Grant Green, were the most at risk of defeat. An overlay of these races shows that where Drummond was strong—in Osage, Pawnee, and Payne counties—so were his Swampy Seven counterparts, a benefit that Green, who nearly went down to defeat, did not have.

It is just one of the unique variables of the 2026 contest that happened to favor the establishment: Two of its most vulnerable members benefited from that extra 10-point-ish tick upward in favor of the establishment’s gubernatorial candidate of choice.

Little Dixie tells its own story. Drummond’s failure to hold his own against Mazzei suggests that his Little Dixie base—a base that had been key to his razor-thin 2022 defeat of conservative incumbent Attorney General John O’Connor—has eroded, perhaps because voters are no longer motivated by his pro-Indian-tribe branding.

It is a warning sign for Drummond that will become a pivotal question in the August runoff: Does Mazzei’s Trump endorsement mean more to those Little Dixie voters than tribal issues—issues that perhaps now cut more against Drummond after four more years of McGirt insanity have opened the eyes of both tribal and nontribal Oklahomans who have been so greatly harmed by those policies?

There is a slight silver lining for Drummond. While the detailed map of Drummond’s relative strength, compared with his 2022 performance, shows a decline in 219 of Little Dixie’s 306 precincts, that decline is heavily correlated with areas where Charles McCall was strong.

McCall finished in second place in Little Dixie, where he overtook Drummond but fell short of Mazzei.

In Little Dixie, McCall could play kingmaker. No doubt, establishment forces will be quick to remind him that he is, in fact, one of their own. Even if it is simply by staying silent and working behind the scenes, his loyalty to the establishment will likely dictate that he do whatever he can to get Drummond across the finish line.

If Drummond is to get across that finish line, it will be on the strength of Oklahoma County votes, where the north OKC metro provides perhaps the most fascinating breakdown of the four geographic classifications: urban, suburban, exurban, and rural. This is a concept I describe at some length in my upcoming book, a guide to running for office, as it is an essential element of truly understanding a district.

Starting in downtown Oklahoma City and working north, one will note Drummond scoring as high as 50 percent in the precincts he won. Even when bested by Chip Keating, whose previous run for the House took place on the northwest side of the metro, Drummond still scored well above his statewide average. This suggests that, if he can pick up those northwest Oklahoma City Keating votes—an area where Keating’s endorsement carries value—he may have a path to offsetting Mazzei’s Tulsa strength.

Drummond’s support holds well into the Edmond suburbs, where Mazzei begins to perform, and the two start trading precincts. Once one reaches the Logan County line, however, the exurbs begin. These contain a mix of blue-collar “section-liners” who moved to the exurbs to escape the cities, combined with modern, Edmond-style neighborhood invaders.

Here, likely on the strength of the section-liners, Mazzei gains the upper hand, carrying much of southern Logan County’s exurbs.

Once one passes that initial wave of exurbs, however, Jake Merrick country begins. It marks the start of an expanse in which Merrick and Keating trade precinct for precinct. This territory extends from the end of the metro’s Logan County exurban sprawl to the New Mexico state line, wrapping around the metro to the west, north, and east before yielding to the old Indian Territory back-and-forth between Drummond and Mazzei.

And then, another observation of note: All throughout the state, even in areas dominated by other candidates, there is that one inner-city precinct where one is likely to conclude that the local public education establishment—and perhaps the government-dependent chamber types—holds sway, and where, invariably, Drummond picks it off.

One usually needs to zoom far in to see it, but time and again, it is there: the compact, inner-city precinct where Drummond pops upward by 10 points or so, bucks the local trend, and, in that one precinct, grabs the win from the other candidates.

It is a fascinating trend, and if the constitutional conservative is in any doubt, it is yet another confirmation: Drummond is not your candidate. He is the choice of the institutionalist insiders.

But let’s go back to Indian Territory, where Drummond holds his own but Mazzei’s strength is notable. From time to time, one can also take note of the power of the grassroots, as certain anomalous Jake Merrick precincts appear seemingly out of nowhere in a sea of Mazzei blue and Drummond green.

I believe this phenomenon reflects the work of grassroots organizations. Their work in these communities is now visible from a mile-high view of the results—no zooming in required.

And finally, perhaps the most interesting observation of all: the Inola exurbs.

Here, as with the Logan County example, one would normally expect that, as the viewer navigates east out of Tulsa through the Broken Arrow suburbs, Drummond would settle into his normal 20-to-30-percent band. Indeed, just outside Tulsa County, Wagoner County’s Precinct 101 shows Drummond right on his mark, finishing second to Mazzei.

But as one continues east and draws closer to Inola, the trend reverses. There, Drummond jumps to more than 50 percent, winning with a very rare outright majority in what, for much of the election cycle, was set to be some of the most enthusiastic Mazzei country—the exurbs of Mazzei’s strong south Tulsa suburban base.

But when that precinct gave Drummond the win—a precinct, by the way, that voted for grassroots conservative champion state Rep. Tom Gann with 80 percent of the vote—the swing helped throw the entire exurban county of Rogers to Drummond. The county fell into Drummond’s column by a single vote.

In the two Inola-area precincts, Mazzei’s support dropped into third place behind Merrick, who was a clear beneficiary of Mazzei’s smelter flip-flop.

And then, just for fun, you’ve got to check out the Merrick-v.-McCall map.

On one side: a half-term senator who spent just enough time at the Capitol to see how corrupt it had become—and escaped with his soul intact. Jake Merrick then became a groundbreaking gubernatorial candidate: the first to campaign on the No Lobbyist Pledge, with less than six figures to spend on his statewide campaign.

On the other side: the Imperial Speaker of the House, the longest-serving speaker in state history—a man who embodied Oklahoma’s powerful establishment, ushered in an era of corporate welfare on steroids, helped advance legalized corruption on a scale never before seen, and had millions of dollars at his disposal.

The insurgent versus the empire.

It’s all there on the map.

If you enjoyed this type of analysis, you might also enjoy the breakdown of the superintendent of public instruction race, which you will also find on the OSC website. It’s a fascinating observation of how those politicians who for years pandered and shilled for the education establishment, in the legislature, simply weren’t supported by the Republican electorate.

A link to the various OSC maps may be found online at https://www.oklahomastatecapital.com/maps.

And, as always, your generous support through paid subscriptions to this Substack makes these types of resources possible.If you have yet to upgrade to a paid subscription, please consider doing so at this time, as OSC continues to provide the tools through which you can become more knowledgeable and better prepared to engage in the battle to return state government to one that is truly of the people—not controlled by monied special interests and their legalized plunder and corruption

And for those who are already paid subscribers, stay tuned for the imminent release of the first OSC AMA.

You won’t want to miss it.