The Oklahoma State Capital

Most observers haven’t noticed yet, but the first signs of a dramatic shift, as captured in the mid year run of the 2025 Capitol Conformity Tracker, is underway in the Oklahoma House of Representatives.

For the first time in years, we can definitively capture the clear evidence of the first green shoots—early signs of what may grow into a full transformation of the House of Representatives. It's a transformation that could restore it to its rightful place as the people’s chamber, rather than the complete tool of powerful government institutions and special interests.

First for some important context that you need to possess before we get to the best white-pill moment of this legislative year.

Last year, this publication released its first-ever Green Governance Report. After this year's legislative session, the second edition of that report will be released, and re-monikered as The Capitol Conformity Tracker.

This simple report is based on an easy-to-quantify thesis: as a general rule, legislators who are “playing the game”—not reading the bills, taking money from lobbyists and special interests, living the gossip and alcohol-fueled nightlife, not causing waves, and ceding their authority as lawmakers to the centralized control of the House Speaker and his lieutenants, who make the real decisions behind closed doors—are the least likely to cast “no” votes on the House floor.

Legislators who are genuinely trying to do a good job, reading the bills, and aren't concerned about placating the big government machine that dominates the Capitol, are more likely to vote independently. Therefore, we should expect them to cast many "no" votes.

The sad truth of the legislative session is that it's mostly unnecessary. It's an excuse for lobbyists, bureaucrats, and politicians to play a big game that ultimately accomplishes little.

Many bills are, at best, meaningless, and at worst, sinister—requested by bureaucrats and lobbyists as part of this game, designed to keep their jobs and positions intact through the perception that they are doing something useful while on balance, they are not.

Oklahoma can hardly be faulted for now doubting the wisdom of State Question 435—the 1966 proposal that passed by a mere 51% to 49% and transformed the Legislature from a biennial to an annual assembly. It has proven to be an expensive proposition, and though it was purported to provide more oversight of government, that has largely not been the result. Government grows unabated. For every one legislator who takes their job seriously, the 2024 Capitol Conformity Tracker suggests there are 10 who do not. One could easily suggest that returning to a biennial legislature should be a DOGE-OK initiative complete with corresponding legislative pay cuts and the accompanying millions in expenditure reductions.

When a lawmaker votes "yes" most of the time, they are simply co-signing this wasteful game.

This is precisely the point of the Oklahoma State Capital's Capitol Conformity Tracker. It's a straightforward way to quickly identify whether a representative takes their job seriously or is merely goofing around and participating in this wasteful charade.

And notably, a comparison with The Oklahoma Conservative Index—the gold standard for measuring conservative versus liberal voting since 1979—or the Republican Party Platform Scorecard will almost certainly show a correlation: those who vote “no” more frequently are more likely to score higher on those score cards.

In 2024, the first edition of the publication shocked readers with the following statistic: 94.3% of Republican votes were "yes."

If this near unanimity seems alarming and frightening to you, it's because you are well-versed in history, understanding that a 94.3% conformity rate resembles something one might expect from the Soviet Politburo. Such near-unanimous votes indicate top-down control, prearranged consensus, fear of reprisal, and enforced ideological unity under the guise of "do it for the team, and the team will take care of you."

These very factors exist within and dominate the ethos of the Oklahoma House of Representatives due to its top-down concentration of power, much more befitting a totalitarian regime than a deliberative body worthy of the Western tradition.

And worse, 2024 wasn’t an anomaly. In 2018, powerful House leaders made an intentional effort to purge conservatives from the House. This dastardly campaign stripped the chamber of its most thoughtful, deliberative, and conscientious members, replacing them with sycophants who represent powerful government institutions and the special interests that funded the dark money groups that were responsible for the election of those members.

We can clearly see the impact of this by reviewing the past five years:

In 2020, 94.37% of Republican votes were “yes.”

In 2021, 93.2%.

In 2022, 94.36%.

In 2023, 94.30%.

And in 2024, 94.39%.

As you can see, aside from a slight dip in 2021, Republican legislators have consistently voted in conformity at around 94.3 to 94.4%, reaching their highest conformity rate in 2024.

Now, however, suspecting that circumstances might be shifting, a preliminary run of the Capitol Conformity Tracker was conducted mid-session—and it's findings appear to have captured the first green roots of independent thought taking place in that dark, dark environment that is the Oklahoma capitol.

For the first time in five years, the mid-year data suggests that Republican legislators’ voting habits are dramatically trending toward a more deliberative, balanced, approach.

As of last week, Republican “yes” votes had dropped to 90.25%—a decline of 4.14% from the 2024 high. For the first time in years, we can see the green shoots, the first real, positive signs that all the energy poured into reforming the House—by grassroots Oklahomans and a handful of courageous legislators—is starting to pay off. It’s working!

At this rate, it’s entirely possible that Republicans, as they move toward independent thought and genuine deliberation, could push this number below 90% by the end of the year. That would represent a historic achievement for all of us who want to return our legislature to a truly deliberative assembly—one no longer afraid to represent the values of individuals rather than institutions.

So how and why is this happening?

The mid year run of the 2025 Capitol Conformity Tracker shows a dramatic move towards independent voting trends withing the Republican legislative group

Take a look at the scatter plot above. It lets you see—at a glance—just how dramatic this shift really is.

Each column represents a Republican legislator. The red X shows their voting trend in 2025, while the blue X shows their voting pattern in 2024. If a legislator is becoming more independent and casting more "no" votes, the blue X will appear above the red X. If they are falling back into the old habit of hitting the green button and voting “yes” more frequently, the blue X will appear below the red X.

Can you see the incredible difference? Out of 80 Republican legislators, only 10 regressed—and just one did so significantly. Meanwhile, numerous legislators improved by double digits.

In 2024, only eight Republican legislators voted “yes” less than 90% of the time. So far this year, that number has jumped to twenty-three.

Wow!

Let’s take a closer look at the scatter plot.

Starting at the far-left side of the plot, the red X in the first column represents the Republican lawmaker who has voted "yes" the least so far in the 2025 session—just 52% of the time. The blue X above it shows that in 2024, that same legislator was voting “yes” 62% of the time.

Now that you understand how the chart works, your eye has probably been drawn to the second column. There, a blue X sits almost at the very top of the graph—while far below, you’ll find the red X. It’s a jaw-dropping improvement: a 43% shift, falling from a near-perfect 99.34% “yes” rate in 2024 to just 56.42% in 2025—the second-best in the entire House.

At first glance, you might think this is a mistake. How could a legislator change so dramatically in just one year?

Well, it’s not a mistake. This is a case of a new legislator who defeated a sycophantic incumbent, who had only found his "no" button a scant six times in 2024—and that new legislator is voting independently. Can you imagine a more vivid visualization of why Republican primary elections matter so much?

The new legislator isn’t a tool of the special interests, and clearly isn’t afraid of leadership or the other legislators. Instead, this is an independent mind voting based on the merits of the legislation.

Without a doubt, anchoring the improvement are the new Republican freshmen—those in their first year in the House. Of the Republican freshmen representatives, only one has shown regression when compared to his predecessor.

Those freshmen posting the most improvement are the three freshmen who defeated an incumbent. In one case, a freshman representative is scoring a 43% year-over-year improvement when compared to her predecessor.

Republican primaries really do matter. The Republican primary voting base is starting to show that it doesn't matter how powerful the incumbent or how much dark and special interest money attempts to keep them in power, the Republican electorate is becoming immune to the effects of big money. That's probably why the Republican primary is under attack, and it must be defended.

This new group of new representatives is proving much more difficult than normal for leadership to co-opt.

The Mushy Self-Declared Conservatives

The second most important factor in the improvement of the scorecard: the dramatic progression of the mushy self-declared conservative grouping.

Most loosely defined, this is the group that votes "yes" between 80% and 90% of the time.

More specifically defined: these are the legislators who like to play the grassroots game and stay active and popular in the real world, where they attend Republican Party functions and speaking circuits and make the long-form grassroots podcast circuit rounds. But once they get into the Capitol, they enter into the fake world, and it’s here where they come under tremendous pressure. In fairness to them, it's a crushing pressure—the fear of being ostracized from their peers, the fear of not having their bills heard, the fear of having their ambitions quelled, essentially being unable to move up in the powerful Speaker of the House's command structure and perhaps never getting a committee chairmanship, or having the one that they hold taken away; the fear of alienating the special interests that have given to their campaign; the fear of not being able to intellectually hold their own against the skilled government bureaucrats who know how to frame the debate to make the conservatives appear "stupid" for opposing them; the fear of the powerful government institutions from back in their district—and many others.

All of these fears combine to ensure that while the mushy conservative legislators will vote the values of the people with more propensity than the completely co-opted, lemming legislators, they routinely cast bad votes on the low-profile bad bills—the bills that are likely to fly under the radar and not get picked up by the grassroots. Examples include expansions of regulations and creations of new state agencies, boards, and commissions; fee increases; exemptions or raising of thresholds from the checks and balances of central services such as purchasing or shared services (frequently sponsored by the powerful bureaucracies); rule suspensions; and other exemptions from transparency laws—and many others.

In reality, because the mushy conservatives are often playing the game, courting both the grassroots and the special interests, they side with the grassroots when the grassroots are engaged and paying attention. But there are many bills that enable the sick system, that keep the lobbyists, bureaucrats, and other politicians happy, and fly under the radar. The mushy conservatives can routinely vote for these and try to keep the other politicians, the lobbyists, and the bureaucrats happy—while also catering to the grassroots.

You can usually spot these types of legislators when they go on the long-form media of the grassroots—such as the Jake Merrick show, or any number of podcasts—where the legislator can't completely pander to the grassroots because they know that someone in the establishment will see or hear the broadcast or podcast, and when asked for their opinion of House leadership, will always manage to either put a positive spin on it, or will have some excuse for why they cannot support or don’t like the truly independent, courageous members who are the true fighters for our values. Their excuses are the tip-off that they’re either scared of the powerful people in the capitol, or are trying to play the game—or both.

This group, usually numbering about 15 or so legislators, by nature of their weakness, has not had the support of or pressure from a strong counter-prevailing force. Due to the 2018 purge of the conservatives, there hasn’t been a large group to which the weak legislators can turn for the safety of the herd, or which exerts enough of a counterforce to put pressure on that weak legislator to do the right thing.

Now, with the arrival of the new freshmen, this has started to change.

A weak-minded legislator, who either wants to or knows that he should do the right thing, can both find safety with a group of other like-minded true representatives of the people, and will also feel the increasing pressure to do the right thing.

So, as you look at the scatter plot, your attention will be drawn to the front end of the curve. Note the number of blue Xs towering above the red Xs. Much of this is the mushy conservative group being pulled in the right direction—whether willingly or not.

Until this group becomes courageous, we are still behind the eight ball, but their year-over-year progressions are notable and significant and are a major reason for the collapse in the overall "yes" voting percentage.

The Lemmings

While not nearly as significant, even the lemmings appear to be starting to feel and respond to the pressure. These are the legislators who vote "yes" 90% or more of the time and have long ago been co-opted by the system of special interests and centralized power. They are on the long tail of the red X, all still mostly lined up in lockstep up with little difference between them, slow to—and will likely never truly—represent the values of the people, still running the grift of campaigning as a conservative in their district, but voting for many pieces of legislation that fly in the face of these values and betray the voters back home.

Many of the lemmings posted a slight improvement. This doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be replaced—and straightaway—but it's still encouraging regardless.

The External Factors

The rise of independent media, as a counter to the corporate media, is most certainly having its effect.

But it’s this independent reporting, both long and short form, that is becoming increasingly sophisticated—that’s able to get true, real, unfiltered information out immediately. This will be vital as the session enters its last days, when House rules appear to have been designed to move shucked bills faster than ever before.

Also important to note are the emerging array of tools that will enable the people to truly quantify the betrayal of the legislators’ actions. Indexes such as the Republican Platform Scorecard are providing a truly comprehensive accounting, catching those many bills that fly under the radar—where legislators have previously been able to betray the values of their voters without consequence.

Now, however, they must pay attention to even the seemingly low-key bills.

And, the people are responding ot this new media, and are using these tools. Some legislators likely still have their head in the sand on this matter, foolishly deluding themselves into believing that the people are represented by just a few people on Facebook.

But, it goes much, much deeper than that.

The Regressors

So what about those 10 republican legislators who are regressing?

With one exception, the regressions are limited to less than 1% change year-over-year.

A glance at the scatter plot shows only one legislator regressing to the extent that his blue X fails to touch the red X.

What is his story?

This is a legislative sophomore—now in his second term—who appears to be following the traditional co-option-by-leadership model. This is the system by which an ambitious representative gets elected, holding some core conservative principles shared by the local electorate. But as he starts playing the game and advancing in leadership, his voting deteriorates.

This is the type of regression that grassroots have long associated with their representatives: electing a conservative they believed in, but slowly becoming aware that this person has dramatically changed—and not in a good way.

In a normal legislative environment, this regression would hardly deserve notation. It’s commonplace. But, and unfortunately for this legislator, due to the dramatic improvement of so many other legislators, his regression sticks out like a sore thumb—it’s the one and only blue X that falls significantly below his previous score.

The observer has to ask: with so many self-declared “conservative” legislators showing improvement, what’s going on with that one member?

That the tracker has only isolated one single Republican legislator who fits this criteria speaks volumes about the direction in which the House has started to trend.

The Extra Courageous Who Kept the Light On

As notable as all of this—and as the momentum of reform continues to build—it’s so important to take note of the handful of legislators who have, in an incredible example of courage, kept the light on: an example for others to follow.

Two of those legislators are still in the House, and they are the anchor of the independent group—reading the bills, helping the new legislators understand the importance of independence—both having taken the "no lobbyist money pledge." Their example has been absolutely vital to educating the incoming generation of Republican lawmakers and making this whole reform happen.

Without them, there would have been no example to follow and no significant counter-pressure whatsoever in the system. In short, we would likely be in a very different position right now were it not for Tom Gann and Rick West—and the legislators who were unafraid to ally with them during the dark years of the Imperial Speakership of Charles McCall, to include Tommy Hardin, Sean Roberts, and Wendi Stearman.

These five legislators should always be remembered for representing the values of the people when it mattered the most—and when it was the most difficult to do so—and whose collective effort made all of this possible.